+100%-

Geoff’s Narration

The GIST

 

connections

The connections are piling up, making it hard to tell where any one finding will lead – hence this blog.

This is a kind of strange blog series. Takeaways from the major long-COVID trials are going to morph into a possible new immunomodulatory strategy to treat ME/CFS (but not long COVID?) in the next blog.

Having one line of evidence translate into something entirely unexpected is just the way things are going now, and that’s good news. We want surprising connections  showing up…

 

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Six Years!

Long COVID has now been around for six years (!). The first long haulers showed up around March 2020. One resource reported that the term long COVID was coined by a patient, Dr. Elisa Perego, on Twitter to describe her own experience of not recovering.

clinical trials

Large clinical trials are still rare relative to the scope of long COVID, but they are starting to pick up.

We owe Dr. Perego, if she did indeed come up with the name, a sincere thank-you. Long-COVID patients didn’t have to deal with a term like “chronic fatigue syndrome” for 4 decades. Moving again, at the speed of light relative to what happened in ME/CFS, the World Health Organization (WHO) quickly established a clinical code for long COVID in September 2020. Of course, that was little comfort to people unlucky enough to come down with long COVID.

With estimates suggesting that 20–25 million people in the U.S., ~2–3 million in Canada, and ~20–40 million in Europe are currently living with long COVID, long COVID’s impact has been huge.

Diseases this large are typically swarming with clinical trials and, for a number of reasons, that hasn’t happened yet. While it was clear early on that long COVID, ME/CFS, and fibromyalgia were close cousins, long COVID was largely treated as a new disease. With studies often taking 3-5 years to complete, it’s taken time for medical researchers to uncover molecular targets they can aim drugs at.

This overview shows a relatively low clinical trial success rate, but that’s not surprising for trials that simply aim to reduce symptoms. The more research that gets done, the more precise and effective clinical trials should be.

The Tier 1 Long-COVID Clinical Trials 

This overview will focus on “Tier 1” trials – the big trials that can enroll hundreds of patients and are randomized and placebo-controlled. These large trials are important because they are the only results we can more or less count on.

Note, though, that even in these trials, only Paxlovid, with its three trials, has an evidentiary base that was considered “strong”; i.e., it takes a lot to build a convincing case for a treatment.

One thing to remember – your experiences with these treatments may be different. Even though long COVID is caused by a single virus, once that virus hits the general population, it can produce different types of long COVID.

The Tier One Studies: Large, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trials

Intervention Target Trial(s) N Result Evidence Strength
Paxlovid (treatment) Viral persistence STOP-PASC (Stanford, 2024); PAX LC (Yale, Lancet Inf Dis 2025); RECOVER-VITAL 155 + 100 + 964 NEGATIVE — No symptom improvement in established long COVID Strong — Three independent RCTs, consistent null
Fluvoxamine (treatment) Fatigue / multi-mechanism REVIVE-TOGETHER (Brazil, Annals Int Med 2026) 399 🟢 POSITIVE — Modest fatigue reduction (MD −0.43 at d60), benefit waned after stopping Moderate — Single RCT, single country
Metformin (treatment) Established long COVID fatigue REVIVE-TOGETHER arm (2026) ~133 NEGATIVE — No fatigue benefit for established disease Moderate — Single RCT arm
SIM01 Synbiotic Gut microbiome RECOVERY trial (Hong Kong, Lancet Inf Dis 2024) 463 🟢 POSITIVE — Improved fatigue (OR 2.27), memory (1.97), concentration (2.64), GI (2.00), general unwellness (2.36) at 6 mo Moderate-Strong — Single-site, symptom-only (no QoL/functional benefit)
Cognitive Rehabilitation (BrainHQ, PASC-CoRE, tDCS) Brain fog RECOVER-NEURO (NIH, JAMA Neurol 2025) 328 NEGATIVE — All 5 arms showed modest improvement; no intervention beat others Moderate-Strong — Large multi-site NIH RCT
Ivabradine Long COVID POTS RECOVER-AUTONOMIC (ACC 2026) 381 NEGATIVE — Lowered heart rate but no symptom improvement Moderate — Multi-site RCT
Temelimab (anti-HERV-W) Neuropsychiatric symptoms Switzerland Phase 2 203 NEGATIVE — No improvement vs placebo on fatigue or most secondaries Moderate — Large Phase 2, negative
Coenzyme Q10 (high-dose) Mitochondrial dysfunction Aarhus/Gødstrup (Lancet Reg Health Europe 2022) 121 NEGATIVE — No benefit over placebo (large placebo response observed) Moderate — First RCT in long COVID

Only 2 of the 8 trials were considered “successes,” and these successes were pretty moderate. There’s no such thing as a true failure in medicine, though, because each failure tells us something. A door that closes allows another door to open.

THE GIST

  • complex problem

    One theme – expect surprises.

    It’s been six years (!) since long COVID appeared on the scene. With tens of millions affected, long COVID is a major disease, and we would expect dozens of major trials to be underway.

  • That hasn’t happened yet. Long COVID is still too new, and we probably don’t understand it well enough for the major pharmaceutical companies to get involved.
  • Long COVID has, however, had ten “Tier I” clinical trials published. These are clinical trials that are large enough – usually containing hundreds of patients – and have been done rigorously enough (placebo-controlled, randomized trials) that we can have some confidence in their results.
  • Of the ten, only two were successful – a fluvoxamine and a probiotic/prebiotic trial – and they were modest successes. (See the blog for the list.)
  • While we only have ten large (or largish) trials, the results are telling some things. They include:
  • Short-term antivirals (Paxlovid/Metformin) are a bust. Either several antivirals need to be bundled together (one projected trial is hopefully underway), and/or they need to be given for much longer periods.
  • What prevents long COVID doesn’t necessarily treat it. Both metformin and Paxlovid had some success in preventing long COVID, but both failed to treat it because by the time you get to long COVID, things have drastically changed.
  • In contrast to the cytokine storms and rampant viral replication found in COVID-19, viral replication is probably very low, the immune system is probably more exhausted than activated, and other problems (blood vessel damage, blood clots, central sensitization, autoimmunity, EBV reactivation (???)) are now present.
  • Broader-based treatments are probably more effective – it was notable that every treatment that focused on a narrow part of long COVID (Paxlovid, Ivabradine, temelimab, CoQ10) failed, while two treatments (fluoxamine, prebiotic/probiotics) that hit several factors had at least modest results.
  • Gut microbiome manipulation can help. While the improvements in fatigue and cognition after 6 months of a prebiotic/probiotic regimen (see blog) were modest, they were still evident. The ability of the combination to move the needle on key deficits in the long COVID microbiome (short-chain fatty acids, butyrate, acetate) – which also show up in ME/CFS and fibromyalgia – was impressive.
  • Drug companies conduct long COVID trials at their peril – one drug company thought it had all its ducks in a row: it had identified a target, enrolled patients with that target, and hit them with the right drug – and the trial failed miserably. The company is now laying off employees en masse.
  • Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome (POTS) is more than about increased heart rates – Given how commonly ivabradine is used to treat POTS, the failure of the big RECOVER Initiative trial to improve symptoms must have raised eyebrows. This is the first major trial to assess this drug, though, and it failed. Like other orthostatic intolerance diseases, POTS is probably more a disease of reduced blood flows to the brain than anything else.
  • The fluvoxamine surprise – the positive effects of fluvoxamine were modest, but they were there. The fact that fluvoxamine is a potent sigma‑1 receptor (S1R) inhibitor that can affect several factors (mast cells, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, the unfolded protein response, inflammatory cytokine signaling, EBV reactivation) potentially points to the FIASMA class of drugs.
  • A novel immunomodulatory strategy for ME/CFS (but not long COVID)? – something different may be going on in ME/CFS, and that is the subject of the next blog

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Takeaways

Even this short list of large trials provides some interesting takeaways.

Short-Term Antiviral Treatments Are a Bust

stop

We’re definitely done with the short-term antiviral trials.

It was probably ludicrous to believe that a 15-day or so trial of an antiviral would fix long COVID, but it had to be tried, and it was – at least three times – in studies involving over 1,000 participants.

The antiviral approach to long COVID is not dead, though. Some reports suggest that longer-term Paxlovid regimens may be more effective, and Dr. Klimas is evaluating a monoclonal antibody that targets a coronavirus variant. Putrino is slated to test Pridgen’s triple antiviral cocktail.

Treatments That Help to Prevent Long COVID Do Not Necessarily Treat it

That treatments that help prevent long COVID cannot necessarily treat it provides a major insight.

Paxlovid’s three trials and REVIVE Together’s metformin trial (n=399) and a Korean metformin trial (n=396) indicated that treatments that help to prevent long COVID do not necessarily help treat it. Metformin’s inability to treat established cases of long COVID in the Brazilian arm of the REVIVE trial was particularly notable, given its effectiveness at preventing long COVID and the many ways it may help.

The idea is that by the time long COVID has asserted itself, the horse has left the barn. Bits of the virus may be causing problems, but viral replication itself is not a big deal.

Metformin’s potent anti-inflammatory properties may have worked in COVID-19 but failed in long COVID because, while they were effective in tamping down the cytokine storm that occurs during COVID-19, they’re not effective in tamping down the kind of inflammation (T-cell exhaustion, autoimmunity, immune dysregulation) that’s present in long COVID.

By the time we get to long COVID, then, a different state of illness characterized by neuroinflammation, central sensitization, autoimmunity, and/or metabolic damage is present. This is not to say that Metformin – which does a lot of good things – might not be helpful as an adjunct. By itself, though, it doesn’t appear to move the needle. (Note that we are still awaiting the results of the U.S. arm of the REVIVE study.)

missing the target

Drugs that do quite well at preventing long COVID have failed to treat it.

The idea that what started off the illness is not what is causing it is encouraging for people with ME/CFS, fibromyalgia, etc., patients who may not, after all, need to hunt down the pathogen or toxin or whatever it is that started their illness. They just need to better understand the chronic illness state that keeps it in place. As Akiko Iwasaki notably asserted some time ago – long-COVID researchers need to get beyond the spike protein.

Time will tell on that. A great deal of work is underway to understand the impact that bits of the coronavirus in the body have on long COVID.

Narrower Treatments Are Not as Effective as Broader Treatments

Thus far, broader-based treatments appear to be more effective.

Several studies show that taking Metformin during COVID-19 reduces the risk of long COVID by a whopping 40-50%. One might have thought that Paxlovid – an antiviral that specifically targeted the coronavirus replication – would be more effective, but it had only modest effects in preventing long COVID in sicker and older patients.

While Paxlovid directly targets coronavirus replication, Metformin affects coronavirus replication, reduces inflammation, alters innate immune signaling, and cellular energy metabolism; i.e., besides knocking down coronavirus replication, Metformin may also have reduced the damage the virus causes to blood vessels and reduced clotting and mitochondrial stress.

Ditto with the failed CoQ10 trial. It seems kind of insane that anyone would think a single supplement would move the needle on as complex a disease as long COVID. Whether CoQ10 in conjunction with other treatments is helpful in a specific subset of long-COVID patients is another question.

The Right Kind of Gut Microbiome Manipulation Can Help

The large randomized, placebo-controlled, Hong Kong study found taking a SIM01 probiotic containing 10 billion colony-forming units twice daily for 6 months produced moderate, clearly detectable improvements (15-20%) in fatigue and cognition, in particular, but did not improve global quality of life or exercise capacity over 6 months or other symptoms (joint pain, dyspnea, insomnia, muscle pain, cough, hair loss, chest pain, mood).

bifidobacteria

Long term gut manipulation using bifidobacteria (pictured) and prebiotics doesn’t appear to be the answer – but can help.

The study’s ability to improve short-chain fatty acid synthesis, including butyrate and acetate, indicated that over time, the right kind of microbiome supplementation can shift major gut pathways. The kind of shift produced should reduce inflammation and perhaps leaky gut and improve tryptophan metabolism. The short-chain fatty acid findings are amongst the most consistent in all these diseases.

The SIM01 provides specific Bifidobacterium strains plus prebiotic fibers → engraftment of these strains → cross‑feeding that boosts butyrate‑producing Firmicutes (F. prausnitzii, others). Exactly duplicating it might not be easy, or even preferable, because the strains and ratios used were derived from metagenomic data on “healthy” Hong Kong Chinese microbiomes. Microencapsulation to improve the delivery of the probiotics to the colon.

SIMO1 contains 20 billion CFU/day total of Bifidobacterium adolescentis, Bifidobacterium bifidum, and Bifidobacterium longum (no Lactobacillus), as well as prebiotics (galacto‑oligosaccharides (GOS), xylo‑oligosaccharides (XOS), resistant dextrin /polydextrose).

Both Bifidobacterium bifidum and Bi. longum in multibillion capsules and prebiotics are readily available. While microencapsulation is not available, using enteric‑coated or “delayed‑release” capsules might help. They should be taken with food and paired with prebiotics. You’d want to start low and assess your symptoms over 6 months.

The Heterogeneity Problem Must be Resolved

It’s possible that some of the failed clinical trials would have been successful had they targeted the right patient subset.

At least four major mechanisms (viral persistence, autoimmunity, gut issues, dysautonomia) have been proposed for long COVID, each of which would be treated differently.

Thankfully, uncovering subsets is becoming a strong research focus. The entire reason for PrecisionLife’s entrée, for instance, into the ME/CFS/long-COVID field is that it believes it can distinguish distinct mechanistic subsets and identify treatments for them.

Increased Heart Rates Are a Secondary Factor in POTS

bicycle and heart rate

In its first large test in POTS, Ivabradine did reduce heart rates but did not reduce symptoms.

The Ivabradine failure, though, came as a big surprise, as Ivabradine is commonly used in POTS. Even Ivadradine’s failure, though, was illuminating. Ivabradine did what it was supposed to do – it lowered heart rates – but did not significantly improve symptoms. That suggests there’s a lot more to POTS than increased heart rates.

Indeed, Novak has asserted that the key factor in POTS and other forms of orthostatic intolerance (problems standing) is reduced blood flows to the brain. Fixing that is where the real juice lies in orthostatic intolerance.

A Cautionary Tale – A Pharmaceutical Company on the Ropes 

Anti-HERV endogenous retroviruses pack our genome, and the idea that they have escaped and are causing problems has been floating around the ME/CFS field for at least a dozen years.

The thinking is that inflammation, immune dysregulation, etc., are causing fragments of these old retroviruses to produce proteins that tweak the immune system. The findings have been mixed, but more recent research suggests there’s something to it in both ME/CFS and long COVID. The issue is far from settled in both ME/CFS and long COVID, though.

The “total failure” of the HERV-K temelimab long-COVID study highlighted how tricky – and consequential for companies – drug trials can be. A Spanish pharmaceutical company, GeNeuro, thought it had the cat in the bag when it identified a large number of long-COVID patients with an HERV-Env-W protein in their blood.

It threw a bunch of money into the large trial, which ended up being as complete a failure as a trial could be (no endpoints reached). Now the company is cutting back personnel, and we’ll see if it survives. A review of the trial stated:

“GeNeuro’s experience underscores the significant challenges and uncertainties involved in developing effective treatments for long COVID. Despite promising initial data and a clear scientific rationale, the path to successful therapeutic interventions remains fraught with difficulties.”

The Fluvoxamine Surprise

Metformin failed twice to treat long COVID. Fluvoxamine, on the other hand, which was not shown to help prevent long COVID, succeeded. Fluvoxamine’s success was modest, but it’s only one of two treatments that have shown promise in large, rigorous trials. Thus, even its moderate success can provide us with clues about what’s going on in long COVID.

The effect was not large, but it was there. The .43-point and .58 point difference that Fluvoxamine produced at day 30 and 90 on the 7-point fatigue scale means the improvement in fatigue was noticeable. The .58 point improvement would be considered “borderline clinically meaningful”. Likewise, the improvement in quality of life was modest at day 30 but diminished afterward.

target practice

Fluvoxamine’s modest success pointed an arrow at other classes of drugs.

Fluvoxamine is a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) that increases serotonin levels in the brain. It’s FDA-approved for compulsive obsessive disorder and used in depression, anxiety, PTSD, eating disorders, etc. Given that antidepressants have not proven very helpful in long COVID or ME/CFS, it seems pretty clear that fluvoxamine’s antidepressant properties were not responsible for its modest success.

Fluvoxamine, though, is also a FIASMA (functional inhibitor of acid sphingomyelinase) drug, and a potent sigma‑1 receptor (S1R) inhibitor that’s able to impact several factors (mast cells, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, the unfolded protein response, inflammatory cytokine signaling, EBV reactivation) that have been implicated in long COVID and/or ME/CFS. Its ability to affect these factors is presumably why it moved the needle on long COVID.

Note that because fluvoxamine inhibits the enzyme that metabolizes caffeine, the effects of caffeine may be stronger and last longer when taking the drug.

The FIASMA (Functional Inhibitors of Acid Sphingomyelinase) Drugs

Fluvoxamine’s partial success suggests that similar but more potent drugs that inhibit acid sphingomyelinases – the FIASMA class drugs – could be helpful for long COVID.

Fluvoxamine’s success pointed an arrow at the cellular membranes.

Because acid sphingomyelinases promote the entry of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 into the cells, acid sphingomyelinase inhibitors make sense in acute COVID-19. (They failed to prevent long COVID, however.)  Indeed, thus far, the Tier I clinical trial evidence suggests that viral replication may not be a big deal in long COVID. (Low-level but persistent virus or bits of virus may be the key.) It’s possible, though, that sphingolipid/ceramide issues persist and are causing damage in long COVID.

Sphingolipids provide structural elements of cell membranes, and ceramides – a specific kind of sphingolipid – provide the core structural units of most sphingolipids. Because ceramide levels rise when cells are under stress and directly impair mitochondrial efficiency, the idea that increased ceramide levels might be contributing to ME/CFS and long COVID makes sense. Indeed, they’re one of the few lipids that can both transmit stress signals and create stress by disrupting energy metabolism.

Early ceramide accumulations in long COVID or ME/CFS could produce the endothelial and microvascular damage, neuroinflammation, and metabolic stress that locks these diseases into place.

The Drugs

Enter the FIASMA drugs. These drugs (amiodarone, amitriptyline, amlodipine, carvedilol, chlorpromazine, clomipramine, desloratadine, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, hydroxyzine, loperamide, loratadine, melatonin, paroxetine, and sertraline) reduce the activity of the sphingomyelinase enzymes, which produce ceramides.

The most potent FIASMA inhibitors appear to be amitriptyline, clomipramine, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, paroxetine, sertraline, and chlorpromazine. (Melatonin, amlodipine, and carvedilol are considered very weak acid sphingomyelinase inhibitors.)

Low-dose amitriptyline is an interesting option given that it’s sometimes used off-label in ME/CFS, fibromyalgia, and chronic pain. Dr. Klimas called it a “messy, old-fashioned drug with a tremendous history” that in a low dose, “is pretty good with pain”, and is a “pretty decent antihistamine” and an anticholinergic that can help with dysautonomia. She uses it for a while to get things under control, but that’s about it.

Dr. Klimas on Putting the Pieces Together in Long COVID, ME/CFS and GWI – From TLC Sessions

Hydroxyzine is a mast cell stabilizer and antihistamine used by some ME/CFS experts. Other mast cell affecting drugs (H1/H2 antihistamines, cromolyn, ketotifen, etc.) make sense, as does a multiple sclerosis drug called dimethyl fumarate which has been suggested for fibromyalgia.

Could an Oddball Multiple Sclerosis Drug Potentially Work in Fibromyalgia? The Dimethyl Fumarate Story

The FIASMA drugs may be a possibility in long COVID – and some are used in ME/CFS – but hold on, two recent studies suggest something very different may be happening in ME/CFS (and that’s what the next blog is about).

Conclusion

complex problem

One theme: these are complex diseases – expect surprises before it’s all said and done.

Even this small number of “Tier 1” studies provided some potential insights.

Long COVID has evolved enough from COVID-19 to be a distinct disorder that requires its own unique treatments. Some treatments do appear to be helping, albeit in moderate amounts. Multifactorial treatments may work better than narrowly focused ones. Unless RECOVER made a mistake with Ivabradine, the results of the small clinical trials that have characterized ME/CFS, POTS, and fibromyalgia efforts may all be suspect, and that cuts both ways with both positive and negative results.

The good news is that several large, randomized, placebo-controlled trials are underway in long COVID. Not as many as the disease deserves, but more than before, and importantly, some are more targeted.

Finally, expect surprises, and surprise will be the theme of the next blog, which concerns a study that suggests that a novel immunomodulator factor may work in ME/CFS – but not in long COVID.

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Keeping up with the latest research in ME/CFS, long COVID, fibromyalgia, and allied diseases. Exploring new treatment possibilities. Learning how others have recovered. All in as thoroughly and comprehensively as we can. 

Please support Health Rising during our quickie summer donation drive. Our goal is to raise $15,000. 

 Find out more here.

Please support Health Rising in our Quickie Summer Donation Drive! Our goal is $15,000.Click here for more.

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